Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
